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11:22 Feb 05 2010

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China-U.S. relationship enters "Dalai Round"
11:20, February 05, 2010  

A Chinese official warned U.S. President Barack Obama not to meet with the Dalai Lama, and reiterated "no room for negotiations" on China's sovereignty over Tibet, according to a report February 3 by the Global Times,

Some analysts believe that the chaotic China-U.S. relationship will shortly enter a new round of conflict – the "Dalai Round."

The China-U.S. relationship has undergone drastic changes within a period of only 1 month in early 2010. The Dalai Lama, who is just like an old drum that has nearly been cracked by the west and China, is likely to bring this round of the China-U.S. conflict to a climax.

"The Dalai Round will give the U.S. more excuses for its series of offenses against China, but it will also make Chinese society more united under pressure from the west.

Facts prove that playing the drum of the Dalai Lama will consolidate the ideological positions of both the west and China," Niu Xinchun, a Chinese scholar, told Global Times February 2.

Analysts believe that the conflicts surrounding the Dalai Lama are likely to bring about 2 results.

Firstly, this round of worsening in the China-U.S. relationship will become irremediable as the 2 countries' patience is ruined by the Dalai Lama who acts as the "last straw."

The other result is that Obama will drop all the bombs in early 2010, rapidly completing his performance of "defying China," before "relaxedly" restoring the China-U.S. relationship later.

The key is why the Dalai Lama is so confident that China will cooperate with him to do this? The answer is that the bet he has made is too big.

Li Wei, director of the Institute of Security and Strategy at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations told Global Times that Obama may still meet with the Dalai Lama. "After 1 year in office, Obama now finds that his approval rating is not as high as in the past. Meeting with the Dalai Lama may divert the American people's attention and enable Obama to win more political support."

On the other hand, the Dalai Lama will have more cards to play in negotiations with the central government if he can meet with Obama. China cannot give other people the opportunity to distort the facts on issues related to its core interests. "Today's press conference proves that China has become more positive and mature."

Wu Xinbo, vice director of the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University said during an interview with Global Times that all the events recently taking place are an intensive release of the negative inertia resulted from U.S. policies toward China. The existing problems have not yet disappeared and China will still encounter attacks from the U.S. despite the fact that the China-U.S. relationship has been enhanced to a certain degree. As China's power grows, China must take new and effective measures to handle all existing problems. That is to say, China should prevent problems from emerging in advance. Economic measures are effective measures which China can adopt to cope with the U.S.

The events will inevitably create an impact on the U.S. China will draw lessons from the events after this round of struggle comes to an end when it becomes aware of whether the situation will develop towards a positive direction or a negative direction. Nonetheless, there is an essential difference between these events and events occurring in the past: China wants to change the rules of the game. China criticized the U.S. for arms sales to Taiwan in the past, but this is the first time that China has taken effective countermeasures, said Yuan Peng, an international events expert.

Global Times contributes to this article.

By People's Daily Online

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